Data Assimilation and ENSO Research Interests

• Data assimilation and Bayesian statistical methods for SST reconstruction
• Ensemble Kalman Filtering for ENSO simulation
• Spectral assimilation of Tropical Instability Waves
• Data assimilation in the context of biased models... How do we move beyond the "perfect model" paradigm
• Low dimensional "adjoint" data assimilation for ENSO simulation and prediction
• The limits of skillful prediction of ENSO
• Classification of model error
• Decadal time-scale predictability of "regime shifts"

Other (Newer) Research Interests

• The atmospheric response to tropical instability waves (TIWs)
• Can the coupled ocean/atmosphere resolution of TIWs rectify the cold tongue bias in GCMs?

Climate and Human Perception

• How accurately do individuals perceive the "normal" climate in which they live? or Is climatology a meaningful reference point for the presentation of seasonal forecasts?
• How can businesses assimilate seasonal forecasts into their decision strategies.
  

Daycare issues

• Download presentation made at NCAR 2/14/07 here
  

• Karspeck, A., J. Anderson, 2007: Experimental implementation of an ensemble adjustment kalman filter for an intermediate ENSO model. Journal of Climate, 20, 4638-4658
  download preprint
  
• Karspeck, A. Kaplan, M. Cane, 2006: Predictability loss in an intermediate ENSO model due to initial error and atmospheric noise. Journal of Climate, 19, 3572-3588
  download preprint
  
• Karspeck, A., R. Seager, M. Cane, 2004: Predictability of tropical Pacific decadal variability in an intermediate model. Journal of Climate, 18, 2842-2850
  download preprint
  
• Seager, R., A. Karspeck, M. Cane, Y. Kushnir, A. Giannini, A. Kaplan, B. Kerman, J. Velez, 2003: Predicting Pacific decadal variability. Ocean-atmosphere interaction and climate variability, C. Wang and S. Xiu, ed. AGU, Washington, DC
  
• Karspeck, A., and M. Cane, 2002: Tropical Pacific 1976-1977 Climate Shift in a Linear, Wind-Driven Model. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 32, no. 8, 2350-2360.
  download preprint
  
• Hazeleger, W., M. Visbeck, M. Cane, A. Karspeck, N. Naik, 2001: Decadal upper ocean temperature variability in the tropical and subtropical Pacific. Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 106, 8971-8988.
  view abstract
  

Fellowship Awards

Jan 2005 - 2007

NOAA Global Change Postdoctoral Research Fellowship
download Proposal as pdf
download Statement of Relevance as pdf

Sept 2002 - 2005

NASA Earth Systems Science Graduate Education Fellowship
download proposal as PostScript (better quality)
download proposal as pdf

Sept 1997 - Sept 1998

General Electric Graduate Fellowship in Engineering (awarded through Columbia University Department of Mechanical Engineering)

Education

2004 Ph.D., Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University

Physical Oceanography, Atmospheric Science and Climate

Advisor: Professor Mark A. Cane

Thesis title: Predictability of ENSO on interannual and decadal timescales

2003 M.Phil., Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University

1998 M.S., Columbia University

Mechanical Engineering

1997 B.S., University of Colorado

Mechanical Engineering (granted with Distinction)

Thesis

Title: Predictability of ENSO on interannual and decadal timescales
• Download entire dissertation (165 pages)
• Chapter 1: Abstract/Introduction/Table of Contents (July 12, 2004)
• Chapter 2: Tropical Pacific 1976-1977 Climate Shift in a Linear, Wind-Driven Model (published JPO 2002)
• Chapter 3: Predictability of tropical Pacific decadal variability in an intermediate model. (published JC 2004)
• Chapter 4: A low-order adjoint scheme for the initialization of ENSO forecasts (July 12, 2004)
• Chapter 5: Towards understanding the factors that contribute to predictability loss in an intermediate ENSO model (subset in review at JC)
• Chapter 6: Conclusion (July 12, 2004)
• PowerPoint PRESENTATION (July 12, 2004)

Professional Reviews

Journal of Climate,Journal of Physical Oceanography, Tellus, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statitics, NSF (Climate and Large-Scale Dynamics NOAA Office of Global Programs (CLIVAR)

Teaching, Coordinating, Outreach

2008

Workshop presenter, Expanding Your Horizons

2006

Coordinator of Data Assimilation Discussion Group at NCAR

Sept 2002 to Dec 2002

Coordinator of LDEO Division of Ocean and Climate Physics weekly seminar series

Sept 2001 to Dec 2001

Teaching assistant for graduate course titled "Quantitative Methods in Data Analysis," Department of Earth and Environmental Science, Columbia University.

Selected Presentations

April 2008

Spring meeting of the Colorado/Wyoming chapter of the American Statistical Association

Invited talk entitled "El Nino state estimation and ensemble Kalman filtering from a Bayesian perspective"

March 2008

Scripps Institute of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA

Invited talk entitled "Two objective methods, one imperfect model: ENSO state estimation and predictability with the Zebiak-Cane model"

Nov 2007

Colorado State University Statistics Colloquium, Fort Collins, CO

Talk entitled "Maximum Likelihood Reconstruction of Small-Scale Variability of Atlantic SST"

March 2006

Workshop on Predictability, Observations, and Uncertainties in Geosciences, Tallahassee, Flordia

Talk entitled "Experimental implementation of an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter for an intermediate ENSO model"

Nov 2005

Caltech, Department of Environmenal Science and Engineering, Pasadena, CA

Talk entitled "Low-order inversion for an ENSO forecasting model"

Jan 2004

American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, Seattle

Talk entitled "Predictability of the 1997/98 and 2002/2003 El Ninos"

Oct 2003

Roger Daley Memorial Symposium, Montreal, Canada

Talk entitled "A low-dimensional "adjoint" approach for finding the best initial conditions for an ENSO forecasting model"

Sept 2003

Workshop On the Low-Frequency Modulation of ENSO, Toulouse, France

Talk entitled "Predictability of tropical Pacific inter-decadal climate shifts"

Dec 2002

NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Ocean Science Research Element, Pasadena, California

Talk entitled "Low-order construction of the 'best' initial conditions for an ENSO forecasting model: toward finding the limits of skillful prediction."

Dec 2002

AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, California

Poster entitled "Low-order construction of 'best' initial conditions for an ENSO forecasting model: General methodology and improved forecast of the 1997-98 El Nino"

download jpeg version of poster (full size: 4'x6')

Sept 2002

NCCR Climate Summer School, Grindelwald, Switzerland

Poster entitled "Low Order Construction of Optimal Initial Conditions for an ENSO Forecasting Model: Applications in Data Assimilation and Assessment of Predictability Limits"

download encapsulated postscript poster (full size: 4'x 6')

Jan 2001

NASA-IPRC-CLIVAR workshop on Decadal Climate Variability, Honolulu, Hawaii

Talk entitled "Tropical Pacific 1976-1977 Climate Shift in a Linear, Wind-Driven Model"

Non-academic Employment

Jan 2001 to Sept 2001

Environmental Protection Agency, Headquarters Office, Washington, DC

Office of Atmospheric Programs/Global Programs Division/Alternatives and Emissions Reductions Branch

Modeled past and projected U.S. emissions of HFCs/PFCs/SF6/HCFCs from industrial sources (refrigeration and A/C, solvents, aerosols, fire extinguishing, etc.) using the EPA Vintaging Model and data collected through government/industry partnerships. Domestic emissions estimates were published in the "U.S. Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990-2000," April, 2002. Emissions estimates were also used in calculations of the cost of reducing domestic emissions of greenhouse gases (Published under the title "U.S. High GWP Emissions 1990-2010: Inventories, Projections, and Opportunities for Reductions," June 2001 ). Additional projections of estimated emissions from developed countries were published as the "Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Developed Countries: 1990-2010," Dec 2001.

Aug 2000 to Jan 2001

HealthEducation.com, Gaithersburg, Maryland

Developed e-commerce website for HealthEducation.com, a company that provided health education materials through an online store. Website development included HTML programming of basic website appearance, PHP programming for interfacing our database with the website, and development/management of a Sybase database of client and product information.

Summer 1996

Lockheed Martin Astronautics, Denver, Colorado

As a Summer Undergraduate Intern, developed Excel macro for analyzing the stress in bolts meant to secure instrumentation onto the (proposed) Stardust spacecraft. Also assisted in testing phase of the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft prior to launch.

Summer 1995

Boston University, Department of Aerospace Engineering, Boston, Massachusetts

Worked with research faculty as a Summer Undergraduate Research Assistant. Summer project consisted of designing instrumentation to measure the friction in ball bearings used in small actuators.

Fall academic semester 1994, 1995, 1996

University of Colorado, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Boulder, Colorado

Worked as teaching assistant for an undergraduate Fortran programming course. Taught weekly programming laboratory and graded student exams and homework.

Contact Information
PO Box 3000
Boulder, CO 80307
NCAR Mesa Lab
Phone: +1 303 497-1725
Fax:
Email: aliciak@ucar.edu

Science Share
movie of north atlantic small scall sst
Longitudinal length scales used in reconstruction (km)
Latitudinal length scales used in reconstruction (km)
Angle from parallel used in reconstruction (deg)
Var used in reconstruction (degree C)
Ellipes of e-folding length used in north atlantic recon